2026 BIG TEN TOURNAMENT PREVIEW EXTRAVAGANZA

So much to talk about this week!

It’s time!

The Big Ten Tournament starts on Wednesday afternoon!

Follow along with me for all of the action on Bluesky.

It is hard for me to express how much I love the Big Ten tournament. Get ready for five days of absolutely wild basketball along with a celebration of women.

Here’s the Big Ten’s pretty bracket picture:

Gotta be honest, it was prettier with 14 teams. Now it’s messy.

Also, I will be there! Let me know if you’ll be around and come say hi! Or we’ll go get a snack between games.

In this article: Prediction Contest    |    2025 Tournament Recap    |    Guide for Newbies    |    Players to Watch    |    Missing the Cut    |    March Madness Stakes    |    Award Picks    |    Power Rankings    |    Darkhorse Championship Picks     |    Game-by-Game Predictions

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2025 Tournament Recap

In contrast to the chaos of the 2024 tournament, 2025 saved most of the drama until the end. The second round featured a fun game between Washington and Michigan, and an “upset” of Michigan State by Iowa. The quarterfinals saw the top three seeds advancing, plus No. 5 Michigan crushing Maryland. Michigan kept the momentum early in the semifinals, but fell off later to lose to top-seeded USC.

UCLA crushed Ohio State in the semifinals, setting up a rematch of the top two teams who split the regular-season series. That game did not disappoint. But UCLA came out on top 72-67 to get revenge for their regular-season loss and earn the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament. Great game. UCLA came back from a first-half deficit with a huge second half. The Bruins will look to defend this title next week.

What to Know if You’re New to Big Ten Basketball

For the uninitiated, these are the teams you will see in Indianapolis by their respective seeds:

1. UCLA (28-1, 18-0 in Big Ten), led by the 6’7” Lauren Betts, is one of the best teams in the country. They’ve lost just once this year, it was a big loss, but they’ve been unstoppable since. They’re the fourth team in Big Ten history to go undefeated in conference play, and what a year to do it.

2. Iowa (24-5, 15-3) is having their best season in the post-Caitlin Clark post-Lisa Bluder era, and doing it in a very different way: a balanced attack and winning in the paint.

3. Michigan’s (24-5, 15-3) Big Three of sophomores Syla Swords, Olivia Olson and Mila Holloway are leading the best team in school history. They’ve shown the value of avoiding the transfer portal. Can we workshop a cooler nickname for them?

4. Minnesota (22-7, 13-5) is amazing this year, their best team in a decade, with some rankings putting them in the top 10. Mara Braun is finally starting to get back after most of two years missed due to injury.

5. Ohio State (24-6, 13-5) lost perhaps their best player to the transfer portal, and she went on to dominate for Ole Miss, and yet the Buckeyes are still in line for one of the best seasons in program history. Let’s see if they can avoid the upsets that have often plagued them over the past decade. Jaloni Cambridge is as good as it gets.

6. Maryland (23-7, 11-7) has consistently been at the top of the Big Ten under Brenda Frese for the last 20 years. This year, they’ve found a way to do it again despite losing four great players to injury, and the #6 seed undersells them.

7. Michigan State (22-7, 11-7) is actually really good this year. They’re looking for their first Sweet 16 since 2009 with a solid group leading the way.

8. Washington (20-9, 10-8) is super fun, especially when they put it all together, with a very exciting key four on offense. They’ve been inconsistent, however, with some very bright wins and a couple bad losses.

9. USC (17-12, 9-9) is battling admirably after losing the country’s best player, JuJu Watkins, to an injury. They started well but don’t have quite the pieces to put it all together. But they are still a tournament team. Jazzy Davidson is the future.

10. Illinois (19-10, 9-9) went quickly from being the worst program in the conference to a really good one; they lost their whole team from last year and somehow came back just as good.

11. Oregon (20-11, 8-10) has been inconsistent this year. But Katie Fiso, Ehis Etute and Mia Jacobs all have shown real flashes of brilliance.

12. Nebraska (18-11, 7-11) started the year exceptionally strong under breakout sophomore Britt Prince. But a losing streak has them hanging on to their tournament lives.

13. Indiana (17-13, 6-12) is set to miss the tournament for the first time since 2018. It was a pretty stunning drop with so much of last year’s team entering the transfer portal, and I’m not fully sure what happened. Still, Shay Ciezki is fun to watch.

14. Purdue (13-16, 5-13) has not done much in a while, and are far, far removed from their 1999 NCAA championship. But this year’s team has scored a couple of upsets, which makes them interesting at the very least.

15. Wisconsin (13-16, 5-13) for a half second looked like a new coach may have gotten them out of the cellar. Then they lost nine in a row to end this year. But it could be worse?

Another thing to know: it’s a pretty marked difference from, say, 5-10 years ago to have this many good Big Ten teams. But those top 12 teams are all likely tournament teams and really strong contenders. The Big Ten might be the best conference in the country, and every team had to face a gauntlet this year.

Ari’s Favorite Players to Watch

• Oluchi Okananwa (Maryland) has to be a coach’s dream player. She clearly works so hard. She’s everywhere on the court. I don’t know why she was a bench player at Duke, because she’s one of the best players in the country. Okananwa is exceptionally fast, ferocious on defense and at the net, and has a huge all-around presence. Her scoring has really come into its own when she was needed after Maryland’s injuries.

• Syla Swords (Michigan) didn’t take as big a second-year leap as her teammate. But man, I will always love watching her. She has about the quickest release you’ve seen. Playing in the 2024 Olympics prepped her exceptionally well, and she’s great on defense. Most importantly, Swords has an incredible ability to meet the moment. When it’s a close game late against a top team, you can bank on her to start hitting crazy shots.

• Britt Prince is one of the coolest players in the conference, and is one of the best shooters. As a sophomore she’s the undisputed team leader. And she’s on a mission to drag her team into the tournament.

• I’m disappointed that I won’t get to see Kiyomi McMiller. Alas…

The Teams We Won’t See

Starting last year, only 15 teams out of the conference’s 18 teams (18 is too many for one conference!) will travel to Indianapolis and be part of the Big Ten tournament.

And can I be honest? I don’t like it! The point of conference tournaments is that every single team still has a chance at a national title if they win all of their games. That should apply equally to Kiki Rice and Antonia Bates.

Also, if you’re going to leave teams out, just throw out the whole bottom six this year. I don’t need to watch any of them. (And now one of them is going to get an upset win just to spite me.) Anyway, let’s take a second and review the three teams that missed this year’s tournament:

• Rutgers (9-20, 1-17 in the Big Ten) has really struggled to be relevant ever since C. Vivian Stringer had to step back, despite some pretty exciting players coming through (Diamond Johnson, Kaylene Smikle, Destiny Adams, Kiyomi McMiller). This year was no different, minus the exciting players. They rebuilt the entire team through the portal after everyone left, and didn’t find much. I’m not sure how the Scarlet Knights get out of this cycle, either. Which is a shame because the 55 press teams were kind of fun.

• Northwestern (8-21, 2-16) had some bright spots this year with Grace Sullivan, but then went through two separate 10-game losing streaks. Not good. This is the end of the line for Joe McKeown. I’m excited for the potential of an exciting young coach, and it feels like there’s plenty of possibilities.

• I’m disappointed that Penn State (11-18, 4-14) didn’t make it, but they only have themselves to blame after losing by 34 to Indiana in a win-and-in game on Saturday. It was nice to see Kiyomi McMiller dominate in a 3-game win streak though. A coaching change might be in order here.

NCAA Tournament Stakes

We will see 11 or 12 Big Ten teams in the tournament this year. Crazy numbers! Here’s what they’re playing for this weekend:

Icing on the Cake

UCLA is almost certainly a one seed. I don’t think anything can change that.

If Michigan wins it all, they could conceivably climb up to the top line, but more likely they settle on the #2 or could drop to #3 if Thursday goes poorly.

Iowa likely sewed up a hosting bid also with a win over Michigan last week, and that probably puts them as a 3-seed, and could move up to a #2.

Fighting to Host

(For those who do not know, the top 16 teams in women’s basketball host the first two March Madness rounds on their campus sites. That’s a big advantage.)

Maryland is currently on the 3-line in projections I’ve seen (impressive after some January struggles!) but need a win or two in Indy to really feel comfortable with that. Defeating Purdue/Oregon and a competitive loss to Michigan probably gets them there.

I was surprised to see Ohio State at No. 16, but a pretty dominant win at Michigan State likely keeps them in the top 16 barring a bad loss. The Spartans, meanwhile, will now have to battle to host. A win over Iowa might be needed to get them there.

Minnesota, in my opinion, should be in the Top 16. The most recent committe reveal agreed with me, and put them at #15, seven spots higher than AP voters did. They’re #8 in the NET! This team should be being taken way more seriously, and I’m glad the commitee also sees that.

I was pleasantly surprised to see all seven of these teams listed in the committee’s top 16. I think they deserve it, though it might be hard to keep them all in. That’s still a crazy thought for me compared to when I started covering the conference seven Big Ten teams making the tournament was a great year.

Playing for Seeding

Illinois, Washington, Oregon and USC are all set in the tournament and somewhere between a No. 7 and No. 9 seed. If any of score get a big win this week, they could move up a bit higher.

On the Bubble

Nebraska won their last regular-season game, as needed, to stay alive, and they also logged a win over Washington last week that probably puts them in the field. They need to win their first-round game over Indiana. If they do that, they should be in. But they probably need to also beat Ohio State to get out of the First Four.

Need to Win the Whole Shebang: Indiana, Purdue, Wisconsin

Big Ten Award Picks

Noting here that I do not have an official vote. I’m mostly curious how my picks compare to the results we’ll get. But here’s who I like:

Player of the Year: Lauren Betts, UCLA

This wasn’t nearly as much as a shoe-in as I thought at the start of the year. And I don’t think it will be unanimous. No knock on Betts’ play, either. Her main competitors are likely her teammates.

But Betts is the winner in my book. She commands attention from any team she faces, and every Big Ten coach had to try to figure out how to scout her. Betts averaged “only” 16 points this year, a decline from 20 last year. In conference games, though, she was the Big Ten’s best with nearly 10 rebounds per game, and played crazy good defense. She was her team’s best player when it mattered.

Freshman of the Year: Jazzy Davidson, USC

Just a ridiculous year from Davidson. The only drawback is that she didn’t win quite as much for USC, and that’s partly on her but mostly just for not entirely being JuJu Watkins. She did about all a freshman could be expected to. Crazy numbers in just about every category. Scoring? With excess. Rebounding? A great number. Assists? Fantastic. Blocks? Second in the Big Ten as a guard.

All-Big Ten First Team

• Lauren Betts, UCLA

• Jaloni Cambridge, Ohio State

• Shay Ciezki, Indiana

• Jazzy Davidson, USC

• Kiyomi McMiller, Penn State

• Oluchi Okananwa, Maryland

• Olivia Olson, Michigan

• Kiki Rice, UCLA

• Sayvia Sellers, Washington

• Grace Sullivan, Northwestern

What an embarrassment of talent here.

Cambridge led the Big Ten with 26 points averaged in conference play, which could earn her Player of the Year nods. Ciezki and Sullivan both had ridiculous season-long numbers, despite every opponent focusing on taking them out. McMiller gets on here with a ridiculous late-season run and winning streak.

Okananwa has been, with Betts, the most physically impressive player in the conference to me. Olson took a massive leap from her already very impressive freshman year, and is in the conference’s inner circle. Rice was so good, leading the Big Ten in HerHoopStats’ win shares. And Sellers also took a big leap as a junior to become a primary weapon.

Davidson, as mentioned above, is just too well-rounded to leave off the list.

All-Big Ten Second Team

• Kennedy Blair, Michigan State

• Grace Grocholski, Minnesota

• Avery Howell, Washington

• Gabriela Jaquez, UCLA

• Gianna Kneepkens, UCLA

• Britt Prince, Nebraska

• Syla Swords, Michigan

• Grace VanSlooten, Michigan State

• Berry Wallace, Illinois

• Chit-Chat Wright, Iowa

Man, there were some tough cuts in here.

Jaquez was quite arguably the best player in the Big Ten — at least according to some advanced metrics. (She probably will end up on the first team, I just don’t know who to leave off). Prince shot 50-40-90. So did Kneepkens. I’m stunned to not have Swords, a preseason All-Big Ten who pretty much met expectations, on the first team.

And it feels weird not to have anyone from Michigan State, a potential top-16 team. But that’s really a credit to them, in a sense, and their balance. Even weirder for Minnesota, who has four players that potentially qualify.

Wright gets the nod for Iowa for me just because she was so fun, and has a ridiculous shooting percentage. Wallace was shockingly dominant the entire year for Illinois as one of the conference’s leading scorers.

Honorable Mentions: Mara Braun (Minnesota), Kennedy Cambridge (Ohio State), Katie Fiso (Oregon), Ava Heiden (Iowa), Caroline Lau (Northwestern), Tori McKinney (Minnesota), Cearah Parchment (Illinois), Hannah Stuelke (Iowa)

Again, brutal cuts.

All-Freshman Team

• Jazzy Davidson, USC

• Destiny Jackson, Illinois

• Addi Mack, Maryland

• Brynn McGaughy, Washington

• Cearah Parchment, Illinois

Not nearly as strong a class as last year when this ran more than 15 deep of very good players. Still, there’s plenty of talent here at the top. Especially at Illinois where two starting freshmen put up impressive numbers and scored some cool upset wins and very likely a tournament bid. Mack was a great addition for Maryland and played a huge role after teammates’ injuries. And McGaughy showed her high school all-american potential with a very impressive year off the bench.

Honorable Mention: Chloe Kitts (Ohio State)

All-Defensive Team

• Amaya Battle, Minnesota

• Lauren Betts, UCLA (DPOY)

• Kennedy Blair, Michigan State

• Kennedy Cambridge, Ohio State

• Jazzy Davidson, USC

I don’t really know what I’m doing here to be honest. I might be overhyping Betts as last year’s winner. Apologies to Brooke Q. Daniels, who is maybe the most ferocious defender to watch.

Sixth Player of the Year: Amiah Hargrove, Nebraska

I never really know what to do with this award. Hargove did slide into the lineup late in the year but spent most of it coming off the bench. She was a valuable two-way player in that time, with double digit points per game and more than five rebounds with solid defense.

(I think you could also put Te’Yala Delfosse here if you want to be stricter with the definition. Or Angela Dugalić who, now that I think about it, will probably be the winner.)

Coach of the Year: Dawn Plitzuweit, Minnesota

There was definitely some potential for Minnesota this year with almost all of last year’s team returning off a championship in the WBIT.

But crashing into the team’s first tournament appearance since 2018 (I can’t believe it’s been that long!) with a Sweet 16-level team if not better? Now that’s worthy of recognition. This is what has been promised with Minnesota for quite a while now. I’m giving the 3-time Summit League Coach of the Year her first such Big Ten honor.

The whole team is playing to the top of its level, even after losing some of its depth right before the year. Once Mara Braun’s game picked up, it’s lights out for the rest of the conference.

Honorable mention goes to Brenda Frese for getting screwed out of a forward in the transfer portal, losing basically a full lineup to injury, and still building amn Elite Eight contender. Plenty of worthy contenders here, to be frank (Kim Barnes-Arico of Michigan also deserves consideration).

Ari’s Power Rankings

I’m leaving off the team descriptions of this one because we’re already way too many words into this article. Mostly going by gut feel. Tried to make these a little bit different from the conference standings, though ultimately I think those shook out pretty closely aligned.

1. UCLA

2. Michigan

3. Iowa

4. Ohio State

5. Maryland

6. Minnesota

7. Michigan State

8. Illinois

9. Washington

10. Oregon

11. Nebraska

12. USC

13. Penn State

14. Indiana

15. Wisconsin

16. Purdue

17. Northwestern

18. Rutgers

The Bart Torvik rankings still have all of those first 12 teams in the top 30 nationally. The Big Ten is so good this year.

Darkhorse Championship Picks

I’ll have my official picks below. But if I was going to pick someone other than the preemptive favorite to make noise, here’s some teams to watch.

• I still don’t think we’ve seen the peak of Minnesota. Grace Grocholski, Mara Braun, Tori McKinney and Amaya Battle all are great two-way players, and if they’re all hitting on the same night, anything is possible. They’ve got a win at Iowa, which is pretty darn good, though no other huge ones — but the double-overtime loss at a full-strength Maryland early in the year was a peek at their potential.

• This might be unsurprising, but I really, really like Ohio State and think they could do a lot of damage from the 5-line. Jaloni Cambridge has can fully carry a team. Elsa Lemmilä is really exciting. They do so many things really well, and looked at full strength in a dominant win over Michigan State just now. I would not be surprised to see this team playing on Sunday.

• There’s such a bright future for Illinois. Berry Wallace exploded as a sophomore far more than I could have expected — up to 19 points per game. Cearah Parchment was quickly a strong post with good defense and nine rebounds per game. And fellow freshman point guard Destiny Jackson is averaging five assists. That’s talent that hopefully stays for a long time. And who knows, maybe some of that noise starts this weekend — though they’ll need to win an extra game.

Game By Game Predictions

First Round

#13 Indiana vs. #12 Nebraska

This year was surprising for Indiana, but perhaps it’s been coming for a while. Last year they were inflated by games where they perhaps got very lucky on 3-pointers. This year, it all ran out, though I was surprised how much of the team left in the transfer portal. There’s a good recruiting class coming in next year.

Nebraska has much more reason to need this game. A loss potentially knocks them out of the tournament. Which would be a shame because there’s still a lot of upside here. I think they’ve got this one, though.

Winner: Nebraska

#15 Wisconsin vs. #10 Illinois

The Badgers come in on a 9-game losing streak. At one point, they were 5-4 and looked like they might be able to contend. Destiny Howell is still a threat, though, and a fun scorer. Illinois won this matchup by 32 last month. This one will probably be a bit closer, but the Illini should still win comfortably.

Winner: Illinois

#14 Purdue vs. #11 Oregon

I still don’t understand this Purdue team, or how they won five conference games. I also don’t really know who their best player is, is it still Madison Layden-Zay? I also don’t really know what to do with Oregon, who have a few really exciting players, not a ton of depth, but also not really the results that go along with it. Still, they probably only need one player going on full strength to get through this one.

Winner: Oregon

Second Round

#9 USC vs. #8 Washington

Thursday starts off with a doozy. Two teams that have shown great potential, been in and out of the top 25, and are battling for seeding. Whoever wins this game will have to face UCLA, and might just have a chance.

Both of these are very slow-paced defense-first teams, with USC’s defense remains one of the best in the country. Washington is going to have to get hot from the floor to get a win here. First to 50 wins?

Winner: Washington

#12 Nebraska vs. #5 Ohio State

Nebraska would like a win here to shore up their tournament spot. The Buckeyes want to shore up a hosting bid. Seeing Cambridge and Prince toe-to-toe will be fun. But Ohio State has too much depth beyond that.

Winner: Ohio State

#10 Illinois vs. #7 Michigan State

The Spartans are a funny team this year. There’s no real star, but a bunch of players have progressed very well under Robyn Fralick, like Purdue transfer Rashunda Jones who has now become very good. Michigan State won this matchup close at home. Illinois hasn’t progressed through the season the way I thought they might, and have been kind of inconsistent. If we get this matchup, I’ll be extremely excited to watch it.

Winner: Illinois

#11 Oregon vs. #6 Maryland

Maryland hit rock bottom in January with a loss in Oregon. The Terps hit just two 3-pointers in that game. After that, they didn’t lose until Saturday at Michigan. If Yarden Garzon can hit shots, Maryland will advance. She usually does.

Winner: Maryland

Quarterfinals

#8 Washington vs. #1 UCLA

It would take a heroic effort to knock out the Bruins. Washington could be the team to do it. Elle Ladine hasn’t been nearly the same player this year as she was last year, but she still has potential to get hot. Avery Howell does everything well as a guard/forward. Yulia Grabovskaia and Brynn McGaughy would need the defensive games of their lives. Sayvia Sellers is capable of playing with anyone. All I’m saying is, I think it’s possible.

Winner: UCLA

#5 Ohio State vs. #4 Minnesota

Now this is a fun one! Minnesota has the defensive guards to hang with Ohio State, as they showed two weeks ago in a double-digit win. Minnesota went just seven deep in that game, relying on their starters much of the way. The double bye really helps with that here. The Cambridges likely take out the main guards, but I think we get a surprising contributor for the Gophers here.

Winner: Minnesota

#10 Illinois vs. #2 Iowa

The tough part of this tournament is that this will be the third game in three days for Illinois. Iowa will be rested and ready to go. Cearah Parchment will have her hands full with the Heiden-Stuelke duo. The Illini did get pretty darn close to winning this game in Iowa City last week. But Heiden took over that one, and I think she’ll be able to do the same here.

Winner: Iowa

#6 Maryland vs. #3 Michigan

A rematch of Saturday’s game. Michigan controlled it pretty much the entire way. They also made 10 of 16 3-pointers, which is not sustainable, even if Maryland isn’t necessarily a defensive team.

To make it deep into the week, the Terps are going to need more from a depleted bench. Big Mir McLean, Kyndal Walker and Monty Williams minutes are coming. It’s also been a while since a big Garzon game, and I think she’s due. If Maryland wins this game, it’ll come down to rebounds, a battle they lost against Michigan.

This was also a fun game last year when the roles were reversed but Michigan came in and fully trounced the Terps.

At least one of the top-four seeds will go down on Friday. I’m picking this one. Could be very wrong!

Winner: Maryland

Semifinals

#1 UCLA vs. #4 Minnesota

I just don’t see this matchup for the Gophers. They don’t have the size to compete with Betts. Or the quickness to slow down Rice. Or the depth to slow down Dugalić or Sienna Betts, if it comes to it.

And UCLA has just been way too consistent for the last three months.

Of course, that’s likely when an upset hits.

Winner: UCLA

#2 Iowa vs. #6 Maryland

Now we’re talking! Heiden-Garzon, Poffenbarger-Stuelke and Okananwa-Wright are all incredible matchups coming in the wings. There’s a reason this one went to overtime in January.

A recap of Maryland’s season: Gracie Merkle originally committed to come in and finish the transfer class, but later decided to decommit and stay in Pennsylvania. In that time, starting forward Allie Kubek opted to leave, thinking her starting spot gone. A very rough turn of events.

Then, enter this year: starting freshman point guard Lea Bartleme tore her ACL. All-Big Ten player Kaylene Smikle couldn’t fight a nagging knee injury and opted to shut down for the season. Bri McDaniel’s ACL tear from last year didn’t recover well enough to enter the court this year, and she opted to stay down for the year. If they were able to keep Kubek or Smikle, and stay healthier, they’re legitimately a final four contender.

With all those players gone, though, Maryland has had to rely heavily on their starters. And they’ve held up pretty well. Brenda Frese knows how to handle this kind of thing, and has won this tournament five times. This will be a battle to the end.

Winner: Iowa

Also, if this one does turn out to be Iowa vs. Michigan, a rematch of a recent Iowa win, I think it could be the game of the tournament.

Big Ten Championship

#2 Iowa vs. #1 UCLA

What a year it’s been for Iowa. Last year was pretty cool the way they turned out a pretty cool team with Jan Jensen and Lucy Olsen. I did not think it would last, nor that they would get nearly this far.

But Ava Heiden turned a few good games at the end of last year into becoming a burgeoning superstar. Hannah Stuelke has done exactly what’s needed. They’ve got depth despite losing Taylor McCabe to injury. Jensen has put it all together. And they found a perfect transfer in a 5-4 sophomore from Georgia Tech.

It’s great. I never thought I would find myself rooting for an Iowa team so much.

Their entire team will have to play the perfect game to beat UCLA.

UCLA has so many strengths. You can take Lauren Betts out entirely, and Kiki Rice will still be the best player on the court, and Gabriela Jaquez might be next. Past that you’ve got an incredible shooter in Kneepkens and a great point guard in Charlisse Leger-Walker. There’s more options off the bench.

There’s a reason they hardly even played a close game in conference play!

Winner: UCLA

Enjoy the games!