The Race for the Double Bye
More than half the conference still has a very real chance at a top-four seed
We’re just two weeks out from the end of the regular season! The Big Ten Tournament, my favorite time of year, is just around the corner. This tournament is going to be crazy.
And one thing has really caught my eye recently: the middle of the standings. Here’s what the Big Ten standings look like right now:
Look at that! Seven teams within two games, right smack in the middle.
For those who are unaware, the Big Ten Tournament has an odd structure (this year, only 15 of the 18 teams will make it). The top nine teams get a bye into the second round, avoiding the three first-round games. And a lucky four teams
And as I’ve been seeing it, those first three seeds are mostly determined right now. The fourth? Well, that’s entirely up in the air.
That’s what I’m here to write about now.
My first pass through the games has Maryland as the fourth seed, in a tiebreak over Michigan State. (That late-December game could be very important!) With a four other teams tied at 11-7.
It’s really anyone’s game!
I wish I could give it to all of them.
The last day of the season has some real exciting action. Michigan-Illinois is just one that could be a determinant. Stay tuned.
There’s also a five-way race for the last two seeds in the 15-team field, but I’m not as interested in that. Maybe one of them can pull an early upset, but that’s a later discussion.
UPDATE: Hoopla Newsletter had a good breakdown of that race. Check it out!
Tiebreakers
Two-team ties are resolved first by head-to-head record, then by record against the highest team in the standings, in order.
Multiple-team ties are the same, with head-to-head against all teams the top tiebreaker.
#1 USC (13-1) and #2 UCLA (12-1)
USC’s remaining games: vs. Michigan State (2/19), vs. Illinois (2/23), at UCLA (3/1)
UCLA’s remaining games: vs. Illinois (2/20), at Iowa (2/23), at Wisconsin (2/26), vs. USC (3/1)
I think USC’s clinched a double bye. UCLA may as well have. I also don’t see them losing that many times. Let’s put those in the top two spots. In some order.
I’m sorry I didn’t write more about their game from last week. It was simply too late at night. Check out the Blueksy account for live thoughts on games like that!
#3 Ohio St. (10-3)
Remaining games: vs. Iowa (2/17), at Indiana (2/20), vs. Purdue (2/23), vs. Michigan St. (2/26), at Maryland (3/2)
If Ohio State can win three of these games, which they probably should, they’ll almost definitely be in the third seed.
#4 Illinois (11-4)
Remaining games: at UCLA (2/20), at USC (2/23), vs. Michigan (3/2)
The Illini? Up here? Oh yeah!
Illinois is red hot. Eight wins in a row! Kendall Bostic is amazing.
But this remaining schedule is pretty rough. If they can, somehow, win two of these last three, I can see them staying up here. But that’s a really tough ask.
Their earlier win over Maryland could certainly help with a tiebreaker. I’d like to see them at least stay in the top six, so they can avoid the L.A. teams through the quarterfinals.
#5 Maryland (9-5)
Remaining games: vs. Michigan (2/17), at Northwestern (2/20), at Indiana (2/27), vs. OSU (3/2)
A shockingly bad stretch from Maryland. Ever since losing Bri McDaniel, they haven’t been themselves. They’ve lost five of their last eight games. Hosting is mostly out of the question, unless they can win out and make some real noise in the Big Ten Tournament.
And yet they’re still alive.
If they can regain their form, though, their schedule is light enough to get to the end. They can potentially afford a loss to either Michigan or Ohio State and, if the chips fall right, still get the double bye. (My simulation has them losing to OSU, and getting #4 at 12-6).
#6 Michigan State (9-5)
Remaining games: at USC (2/19), vs. Indiana (2/23), at OSU (2/26), vs. Minnesota (3/1)
What a year it’s been for Michigan State, though. Recent losses now have them on the outside of the hosting spot, unless they can really score some upsets. They very nearly did that last night, taking UCLA all the way down to the wire.
It’s a tough schedule, though. Having already lost some of the potential tiebreaker games, their path to the fourth seed is tricky. But with one loss and some outside help, there’s a chance to crack the top four. Or a much better chance if they manage to win out.
#7 Michigan (9-5)
Remaining games: at Maryland (2/17), vs. Penn State (2/22), vs. Iowa (2/26), at Illinois (3/2)
Suddenly, Michigan looks like they’ve gotten it all together. Their recent stretch includes a 32-point beatdown of Oregon and a win at Michigan State.
If they can get a win in College Park on Monday, against a rattled Maryland team, they have the inside track. Especially with an easier schedule compared to the teams above them.
Michigan doesn’t quite control their own destiny; they would lose out in a 3-way tie with Ohio State and Michigan State; or if MSU wins out, they would seed above Michigan (tiebreaker being record against USC). There is a possibility that they can #4 at four losses (but it involves a total collapse by some teams).
That last game against Illinois could be huge.
#8 Oregon (9-6)
Remaining games: at Nebraska (2/19), vs. Rutgers (2/23), at Washington (3/2)
A winnable remaining schedule gives Oregon a chance at sliding up in the seeding over the last two weeks.
They’ve been up and down over the last few weeks. Some good wins, including over Michigan State. A 32-point loss to Michigan.
But if they can get through these three games (not easy!), and get a bit of help, a double bye could be on the way.
#9 Iowa (8-6)
Remaining games: at Ohio State (2/17), vs. UCLA (2/23), at Michigan (2/26), vs. Wisconsin (3/2)
Iowa’s had a real nice stretch recently. After some disappointing losses, it looked like their follow-up to the last two years was going to come up short. And then they took down USC on Caitlin Clark’s jersey retirement day. They’ve won six games in a row!
This schedule is probably too tough and they need too much help to get the double bye. But it’s not impossible if they can win out. They have a chance to be exciting in the postseason though, at this rate.
#10 Indiana (8-6)
Remaining games: vs. Ohio State (2/20), at Michigan State (2/23), vs. Maryland (2/27), at Purdue (3/2)
The Hoosiers have quite the tough schedule here. They haven’t been the most interesting team in conference play. But they’re here, and they’re likely a tournament team.
They’re still in the running for a top-four seed. Indiana has had some recent games with incredible 3-point shooting, which is enough to win just about any time. If they can get hot and win all these games, who knows where they could end up.
#11 Nebraska (8-7)
Unless I’m missing something, Nebraska’s loss to Illinois on Sunday eliminated them from contention here, putting them three games back without the tiebreaker, with three to play.
Still, I’m really impressed with what Nebraska has done, and I’m excited to see them in the tournament.
Ari’s Picks in Order of Likelihood:
No scientific value here
Maryland; Michigan; Michigan State; Illinois; Oregon; Indiana; Iowa